Elijah Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Elijah Moore

NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+281/-491).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +312 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +281.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 69.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 40.0 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 8th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be a more integral piece of his team's passing offense near the goal line this week (16.4% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.4% in games he has played).
Elijah Moore has posted a whopping 84.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 11th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Elijah Moore's 38.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 48.5.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Elijah Moore ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (60.3%) versus wide receivers this year (60.3%).

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