Elijah Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Moore

WR · New York Jets

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+224/-347).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +264 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +224.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack near the goal line this week (23.6% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.4% in games he has played).
Elijah Moore has posted a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 86th percentile among WRs.
Elijah Moore's 48.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
Elijah Moore has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the league, completing a measly 58.2% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 15th percentile among wide receivers
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.