Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Elijah Mitchell

RB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 22, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Elijah Mitchell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are an enormous 10-point favorite in this game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most run-heavy offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 41.7% run rate.
Elijah Mitchell has averaged 67.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (95th percentile).
Elijah Mitchell's rushing efficiency has gotten better this season, averaging 5.57 yards-per-carry vs a measly 4.56 rate last season.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 5.01 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 56.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Elijah Mitchell to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack this week (36.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (59.3% in games he has played).
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.