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Elijah Mitchell

Elijah Mitchell Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Elijah Mitchell Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+475/-800).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +550 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +475.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.

This year, the deficient Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has conceded a whopping 89.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing RBs: the highest rate in the NFL.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Kansas City's safety corps has been dreadful this year, projecting as the worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the 49ers as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 54.1 plays per game.

Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 25.8 per game) this year.

With an extraordinary 11.9% Route Participation% (20th percentile) this year, Elijah Mitchell rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the league.

Elijah Mitchell has earned a puny -0.7% of his team's air yards this year: just 25th percentile among RBs.

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