Dyami Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Dyami Brown

WR · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Dyami Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+123/-169).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -169.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.7% pass rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Dyami Brown to be a much bigger part of his team's passing game this week (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (3.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has given up the 9th-highest Completion% in the league (68.5%) vs. wide receivers this year (68.5%).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Dyami Brown has been among the worst possession receivers in football, completing a measly 50.1% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 20th percentile among wideouts
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.