Dyami Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Dyami Brown

NFL · Player Props

Dyami Brown

WR · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dyami Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Commanders offensive approach to lean 12.6% more towards the passing game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Dyami Brown has been used less as a potential target this year (29.6% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (15.2%).
After accumulating 22.0 air yards per game last year, Dyami Brown has produced significantly more this year, currently boasting 31.0 per game.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Commanders to run the 4th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has given up the 4th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 120.0) to wideouts this year.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Atlanta's safety corps has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the 4th-best in the league.

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