Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Miami Dolphins to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.
Durham Smythe's 74.7% Route Participation Rate this year reflects an impressive gain in his pass attack usage over last year's 27.1% rate.
Durham Smythe's 2.4 adjusted receptions per game this year represents a noteworthy growth in his receiving talent over last year's 1.2 mark.
Durham Smythe's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 78.3% to 83.6%.

Favors Under

Right now, the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the model is the Miami Dolphins.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in football this year with their pass rush.

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