Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -185 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Durham Smythe has been a more important option in his offense's passing game this year (10.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (3.8%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Durham Smythe's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.3% to 73.6%.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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