Durham Smythe Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Durham Smythe

NFL · Player Props

Durham Smythe

TE · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs Denver Broncos · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Durham Smythe to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.9% in games he has played).
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.2 plays per game.
Durham Smythe's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.3% to 71.1%.

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