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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +124 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.2% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.

The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

Durham Smythe's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.4% to 57.9%.

The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (62.8%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (62.8%).

The New England Patriots linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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