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Durham Smythe

Durham Smythe Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins

Durham Smythe Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.

The New York Jets safeties profile as the 4th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have incorporated play action on 33.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-most in football), tricking the defense into thinking it's a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.

The Miami Dolphins have gone no-huddle on 13.9% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

Durham Smythe's 8.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 14.1.

More Durham Smythe Player Props

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