Drew Sample Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Drew Sample

NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+953/-1150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.
This year, the anemic Dolphins pass defense has given up a whopping 93.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the largest rate in the league.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Drew Sample has compiled a meager 1.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile among TEs.
Drew Sample's 80.0% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks a significant decrease in his receiving ability over last year's 89.0% mark.

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