Drew Sample Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+953/-1233).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
With a fantastic 90.6% Adjusted Catch% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Drew Sample has posted a feeble 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 2nd percentile among tight ends.
Drew Sample has been in just the 24th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a poor 4.7 mark since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.