Drew Sample Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

reorder

NBA Season Tips Off Soon — Don’t Miss the Action! 🏀 02:03:18 🏀 SUBSCRIBE NOW

NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1233/-1567).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in the red zone (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a terrific 90.6% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample places among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Houston Texans defense has surrendered a whopping 0.44 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 10th-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
Drew Sample has notched a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 2nd percentile among TEs.
Drew Sample's 4.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for TEs.
Drew Sample ranks in the 23rd percentile among tight ends when it comes to catching TDs since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 0.07 per game.
Since the start of last season, the strong Houston Texans defense has yielded a measly 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the 2nd-smallest rate in the league.