Drew Sample Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1085/-1413).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1413.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.3% red zone pass rate.
Drew Sample ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing an outstanding 89.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 89th percentile.
Last year, the shaky Buccaneers pass defense has yielded a whopping 78.3% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 8th-highest rate in the NFL.
The Buccaneers defense has yielded the 2nd-most receiving touchdowns in the NFL to tight ends: 0.71 per game last year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
With a middling 1.2% Red Zone Target Share (12th percentile) last year, Drew Sample ranks among the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in football.
When talking about air yards, Drew Sample ranks in the lowly 1st percentile among tight ends last year, totaling just 0.0 per game.
Drew Sample's 4.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for tight ends.