Drew Sample Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Drew Sample

NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+158/-180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.
With a fantastic 90.6% Adjusted Catch% (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among tight ends.
The Steelers pass defense has yielded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.2%) versus TEs since the start of last season (80.2%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Drew Sample has been in just the 24th percentile for tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with a poor 4.7 mark since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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