Drew Sample Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Drew Sample

NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Drew Sample Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Drew Sample to be a more integral piece of his team's passing game this week (7.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (1.4% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers project as the worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.6%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (69.6%).

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