Drew Sample Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This year, the anemic Dolphins pass defense has given up a whopping 93.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the largest rate in the league.
This year, the deficient Dolphins defense has yielded the 2nd-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a monstrous 10.77 yards.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Drew Sample has compiled a meager 1.0 air yards per game this year: just 25th percentile among TEs.
Drew Sample grades out as one of the weakest pass-catching tight ends since the start of last season, averaging just 8.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 15th percentile among TEs.