Drew Sample Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.0% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced run volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 124.7 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest among all games this week.
When talking about air yards, Drew Sample grades out in just the 2nd percentile among TEs since the start of last season, totaling just 0.0 per game.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Drew Sample checks in as one of the bottom TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 8.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 15th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Drew Sample's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 89.0% to 80.2%.