Drew Sample Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-111/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 68.4% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
With a terrific 90.6% Adjusted Catch Rate (85th percentile) since the start of last season, Drew Sample places among the most sure-handed receivers in the league when it comes to TEs.
Drew Sample rates as one of the weakest TEs in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) last year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Texans pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, giving up an average of 0.51 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the league.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bengals are projected by the predictive model to run just 62.4 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
Drew Sample has notched a puny 0.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 2nd percentile among TEs.
Drew Sample's 4.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for TEs.
Drew Sample is positioned as one of the bottom TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a mere 9.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 18th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 10th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 44.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.