Drew Sample Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Sample

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 4:32 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Sample Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 64.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Drew Sample ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among TEs, completing an outstanding 89.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 89th percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has given up the 8th-most adjusted receiving yards per game in the NFL (56.0) to tight ends last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, allowing an average of 0.00 yards-after-the-catch last year: the most in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 3rd-worst collection of safeties in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their standard game plan.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
When talking about air yards, Drew Sample ranks in the lowly 1st percentile among tight ends last year, totaling just 0.0 per game.
Drew Sample's 4.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the worst in the NFL: 24th percentile for tight ends.
Drew Sample comes in as one of the worst TE receiving threats last year, averaging a lowly 8.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 11th percentile when it comes to tight ends.