Drew Lock TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Drew Lock

QB · Seattle Seahawks

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Drew Lock TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+156/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seattle Seahawks may rely on the pass game less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to start backup quarterback Drew Lock.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Cardinals defense has yielded the 8th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.72 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

With a 4-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 54.4% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Seahawks to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 52.4% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to have the 4th-fewest plays run out of all the games this week at 125.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Seahawks since the start of last season (just 53.9 per game on average).