Drake London Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 5, 2024

Updated Oct 4, 2024 2:46 AM EST

Analysis

Drake London Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +122 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Falcons are projected by the projection model to run 64.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-most on the slate this week.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may slide.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Buccaneers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
The model projects Drake London to total 9.1 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Drake London's 28.4% Target Share this year reflects a meaningful boost in his passing attack utilization over last year's 23.3% mark.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a running game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3 points.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.2 plays per game.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all passing attack stats), the offensive line of the Falcons ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has yielded a feeble 61.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the best in the NFL.

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