Drake London Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:36 PM EST

Analysis

Drake London Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.0 plays per game.
With an impressive 4.7 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Drake London has been among the leading wide receivers in the game in the league.
This year, the weak Tennessee Titans pass defense has allowed a massive 75.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.
The Titans linebackers profile as the 7th-worst LB corps in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Atlanta Falcons are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 61.5 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
Drake London has been a less important option in his offense's passing attack this season (23.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (29.1%).

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