Drake London Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Drake London

NFL · Player Props

Drake London

WR · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Drake London Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.
The model projects Drake London to earn 7.2 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
With a fantastic 4.4 adjusted catches per game (77th percentile) this year, Drake London stands among the best WRs in the game in football.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Drake London has been relied on much less in his team's passing game.

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