Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Dorian Thompson-Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Dorian Thompson-Robinson

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Cleveland Browns · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Dorian Thompson-Robinson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-200/+150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -435 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Browns have called the most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 66.9 plays per game.
The Cleveland O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
This year, the weak Denver Broncos defense has conceded a staggering 77.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the biggest rate in the league.
This year, the porous Denver Broncos defense has allowed a whopping 1.80 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst rate in the league.
The Denver Broncos linebackers rank as the worst collection of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Browns to pass on 52.0% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Browns to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.5 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Denver Broncos, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 33.9 per game) this year.

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