D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+313/-570).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -389 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -570.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (47.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Carolina Panthers have gone no-huddle on 11.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
The Carolina Panthers have elected to go for it on 4th down 23.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Panthers are a huge 13.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least run-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 38.9% red zone run rate.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.3 plays per game.
D'Onta Foreman has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in football among running backs (1st percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least touchdowns in the league (0.50 per game) vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.