D'Onta Foreman Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D'Onta Foreman

NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Chicago Bears

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Chicago Bears · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 9:06 PM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a heavy 9.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
D'Onta Foreman has been much more involved in his offense's pass game this year (8.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (2.0%).
D'Onta Foreman's 12.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season marks a substantial boost in his pass-catching ability over last season's 2.0 rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bears as the 9th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 56.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by the projections to call only 63.9 plays on offense in this game: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
D'Onta Foreman has compiled a measly -2.0 air yards per game this year: just 23rd percentile among RBs.
When it comes to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Chicago Bears profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year.
D'Onta Foreman is positioned as one of the most unreliable receivers in football among running backs, hauling in just 68.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 15th percentile.

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