D'Onta Foreman Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

D'Onta Foreman

RB · Carolina Panthers

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

D'Onta Foreman Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers have been the 6th-most run-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year with a 43.4% run rate.
The weather forecast calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to total 12.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects D'Onta Foreman to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (54.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.7% in games he has played).
The Baltimore Ravens linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are an enormous 13-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.6 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers have faced a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.