Donald Parham Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Donald Parham Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-166/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Donald Parham has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (37.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (25.2%).

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
Donald Parham's 69.4% Adjusted Catch% this season marks a noteworthy regression in his pass-catching ability over last season's 83.6% figure.

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