Donald Parham Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 17, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Donald Parham Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.4% of their chances: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.2 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Donald Parham's 36.2% Route% this season marks a a significant boost in his air attack volume over last season's 25.2% mark.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive scheme to tilt 2.2% more towards running than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
Donald Parham's 78.1% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a an impressive reduction in his receiving prowess over last season's 83.6% figure.
The Cowboys defensive ends project as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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