Donald Parham Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Donald Parham

NFL · Player Props

Donald Parham

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Donald Parham Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
This year, the feeble Kansas City Chiefs defense has been torched for the 7th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a whopping 6.87 YAC.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Donald Parham's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 83.6% to 74.4%.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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