DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Seahawks are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 63.0% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate on the slate this week.
To the extent of a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.60 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks as the 10th-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The model projects D.K. Metcalf to earn 8.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

This year, the strong Ravens defense has yielded a meager 62.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

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