DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:51 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+143/-193).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf's 71.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
DK Metcalf has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, catching a measly 59.6% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 17th percentile among WRs
The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.