DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 8:05 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+145/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Seahawks are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to accrue 7.0 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which places him in the 96th percentile among wide receivers.
DK Metcalf has been among the leading WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.5 receptions per game while checking in at the 87th percentile.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.1 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.

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