DK Metcalf Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-159/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -159.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to notch 9.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among WRs.
DK Metcalf's 69.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 96th percentile for wideouts.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Seattle Seahawks have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging just 54.9 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.8%) vs. wideouts this year (60.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a measly 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.