DK Metcalf Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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DK Metcalf

NFL · Player Props

DK Metcalf

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 8, 2025

Updated Oct 27, 2025 12:02 AM EST

Analysis

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-112/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 54.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
In this game, DK Metcalf is expected by the model to land in the 89th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.9 targets.
DK Metcalf has been in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive involvement) with an impressive 66.9 figure this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.
After accruing 99.0 air yards per game last year, DK Metcalf has seen a big decline this year, now boasting 80.0 per game.
DK Metcalf has put up a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
DK Metcalf's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 60.2% to 56.7%.

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