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DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
DK Metcalf Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 66.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 66.5 @ -134.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to garner 9.8 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.
  • DK Metcalf has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in a mere 59.0% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile among WRs
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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