DJ Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

DJ Moore

WR · Buffalo Bills

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

DJ Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+137/-179).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -143 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
DJ Moore has run a route on 83.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.
The leading projections forecast DJ Moore to total 6.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
DJ Moore's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 63.2% to 66.6%.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, New England's collection of CBs has been phenomenal since the start of last season, projecting as the 7th-best in the league.

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