D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The predictive model expects D.J. Moore to earn 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The model projects D.J. Moore to be a more important option in his offense's passing game in this week's contest (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.7% in games he has played).
D.J. Moore's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 57.7% to 80.2%.
The Broncos cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.

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