D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Chicago Bears

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With an exceptional 95.8% Route% (97th percentile) this year, D.J. Moore rates as one of the wideouts with the most usage in the NFL.
The leading projections forecast D.J. Moore to garner 7.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
D.J. Moore's 5.2 adjusted receptions per game this season signifies a meaningful growth in his receiving ability over last season's 3.7 rate.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.

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