D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 5:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Darnold in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.7% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to total 7.9 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
D.J. Moore's receiving skills have worsened this season, compiling a mere 3.9 yards per game vs 5.5 last season.

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