D.J. Moore Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will be forced to start backup QB Sam Darnold in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.4% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 6.8 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst collection of CBs in the league this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 47.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
D.J. Moore's receiving skills have tailed off this season, compiling just 3.5 yards per game vs 5.5 last season.

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