D.J. Moore Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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D.J. Moore

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Moore

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Moore Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+300/-534).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -495 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -534.

Key Factors

Favors Over

D.J. Moore has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.1% this year, which puts him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
D.J. Moore's 70.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in football: 95th percentile for wide receivers.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
D.J. Moore grades out in the 75th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.31 per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered the 4th-most touchdowns through the air in football to wideouts: 1.15 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-most sluggish pace on the slate this week, averaging 26.74 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 4th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
D.J. Moore has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (84.0 per game) than he did last season (100.0 per game).
D.J. Moore's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 59.7% to 53.8%.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Completion% in football (60.9%) versus wide receivers this year (60.9%).

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