D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Indianapolis's LB corps has been terrible this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

D.J. Chark has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 85.3% of snaps vs just 70.2% last year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
D.J. Chark's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 58.2% to 51.9%.

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