D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to tilt 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Panthers to call the 5th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Panthers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a staggering 62.5 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.8 per game) this year.
D.J. Chark's 34.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 42.4.
In regards to pocket protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Panthers profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
D.J. Chark is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 58.4% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 19th percentile among wideouts
This year, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has given up a puny 59.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 4th-smallest rate in football.