D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -174 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
D.J. Chark has been less involved as a potential target this season (85.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (70.8%).
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has given up the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (69.7%) vs. wideouts this year (69.7%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
The Detroit Lions have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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