D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-114/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -186 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
D.J. Chark's 45.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 78th percentile for wide receivers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars safeties rank as the 8th-worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box vs. opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 37.9% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 8th percentile among wideouts
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.