D.J. Chark Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:26 PM EST

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+172/-244).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -199 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -244.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
D.J. Chark's 45.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 78th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
D.J. Chark has been among the most unreliable receivers in football, completing a mere 37.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 9th percentile among wideouts
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.