D.J. Chark Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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D.J. Chark

NFL · Player Props

D.J. Chark

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

D.J. Chark Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
D.J. Chark has been responsible for a staggering 28.7% of his team's air yards this year: 82nd percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Favors Under

D.J. Chark has been a much bigger part of his team's offense this year, staying in the game for 85.3% of snaps vs just 70.2% last year.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
D.J. Chark's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 58.2% to 51.9%.
D.J. Chark's pass-game efficiency has declined this year, compiling a measly 7.15 adjusted yards-per-target vs a 8.73 figure last year.

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